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ClimateQuiet 9d · day 14

Arctic vortex could split in early November, earliest on record

Forecasts show a rare stratospheric warming event may disrupt the polar vortex by Nov. 12, three weeks earlier than any recorded event.

newest coverage 8d agosummary written 9d ago9 pieces103 likes & upvotes3 comments Google NewsMastodonNewswiresBluesky

What to know

  • All 50 members of the ECMWF ensemble forecast project wind reversal around the Arctic by Nov. 12, an unprecedented early date three weeks ahead of the previous record from 1968 and 2025.
  • The event is driven by a rare early-season sudden stratospheric warming tied to a Super El Niño, creating unpredictable conditions because the polar vortex is still building for winter rather than fully formed.
  • A disrupted polar vortex can send Arctic air into the northern US and Europe in mid-to-late November, though impacts are harder to predict when the disruption occurs this early in the season.

“We must prepare for weather and climate events that were otherwise impossible until now.”

Severe Weather Europe, Weather forecasting website · ZeroHedge ↗

Severe Weather Europe Weather forecasting website

Arctic vortex could split in early November, earliest on record
severe-weather.eu

How it unfolded 3 developments, newest first · click a bar or a number to jump articlesposts

Peak 2 pieces in 4h at Oct 30, 7 AM; 9 pieces over 14 days (6 articles · 3 posts) Oct 25, 11 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Oct 25, 3 PM — quietOct 25, 7 PM — quietOct 25, 11 PM — quietOct 26, 3 AM — quietOct 26, 7 AM — quietOct 26, 11 AM — quietOct 26, 3 PM — quietOct 26, 7 PM — quietOct 26, 11 PM — quietOct 27, 3 AM — quietOct 27, 7 AM — quietOct 27, 11 AM — quietOct 27, 3 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Oct 27, 7 PM — quietOct 27, 11 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Oct 28, 3 AM — quietOct 28, 7 AM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 28, 11 AM — quietOct 28, 3 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Mastodon 1Oct 28, 7 PM — quietOct 28, 11 PM — quietOct 29, 3 AM — quietOct 29, 7 AM — quietOct 29, 11 AM — quietOct 29, 3 PM — quietOct 29, 7 PM — 1 piece · 1 article — Newswires 1Oct 29, 11 PM — quietOct 30, 3 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Oct 30, 7 AM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Newswires 1, Bluesky 1Oct 30, 11 AM — quietOct 30, 3 PM — quietOct 30, 7 PM — quietOct 30, 11 PM — quietOct 31, 3 AM — quietOct 31, 7 AM — quietOct 31, 11 AM — quietOct 31, 3 PM — quietOct 31, 7 PM — quietOct 31, 11 PM — quietNov 1, 2 AM — quietNov 1, 6 AM — quietNov 1, 10 AM — quietNov 1, 2 PM — quietNov 1, 6 PM — quietNov 1, 10 PM — quietNov 2, 2 AM — quietNov 2, 6 AM — quietNov 2, 10 AM — quietNov 2, 2 PM — quietNov 2, 6 PM — quietNov 2, 10 PM — quietNov 3, 2 AM — quietNov 3, 6 AM — quietNov 3, 10 AM — quietNov 3, 2 PM — quietNov 3, 6 PM — quietNov 3, 10 PM — quietNov 4, 2 AM — quietNov 4, 6 AM — quietNov 4, 10 AM — quietNov 4, 2 PM — quietNov 4, 6 PM — quietNov 4, 10 PM — quietNov 5, 2 AM — quietNov 5, 6 AM — quietNov 5, 10 AM — quietNov 5, 2 PM — quietNov 5, 6 PM — quietNov 5, 10 PM — quietNov 6, 2 AM — quietNov 6, 6 AM — quietNov 6, 10 AM — quietNov 6, 2 PM — quietNov 6, 6 PM — quietNov 6, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 2 AM — quietYesterday, 6 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 2 PM — quietYesterday, 6 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 2 AM — quietToday, 6 AM — quiet 123
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  1. 3

    ECMWF ensemble forecast shows 100% consensus for wind reversal

    ZeroHedge reports that all 50 members of the ECMWF ensemble forecast project a reversal of winds around the Arctic polar vortex by Nov. 12, and notes this shift from westerly to easterly winds has never occurred by this date in any year from 1991 to 2020. The earliest prior sudden stratospheric warming on record occurred Nov. 28 in both 1968 and 2025.

    “This has never happened before. The Super El Niño has triggered an unprecedented early November stratospheric warming event (SSW) and wind reversal. 100% chance forecast.”
    — Severe Weather Europe
    1. 1 outlet "Uncharted Territory": Arctic Vortex Could Break Earliest On Record

      first by ZeroHedge, 9d ago

    • weatherprof.bsky.social

      Watch as The Stratospheric Polar Vortex splits in 2 pieces, an unprecedented early-season collapse - a full month ahead of any other known collapse! The forecast shows stratospheric winds in the Polar regions weakening to record-low levels in early November, and remaining that way for weeks…

      weatherprof.bsky.socialBluesky8d ago103▲view on Bluesky ↗
  2. 1 day quiet
  3. 2

    Forecasters note unprecedented conditions and uncertainty

    Analysis emphasizes the event occurs in uncharted territory: occurring this early in the season when the polar vortex is still building, combined with an active Super El Niño, makes predicting downstream weather impacts more difficult than mid-winter disruptions. Forecasters flag that while a disrupted vortex can send cold air southward, it does not guarantee cold conditions in all regions.

    “An event this early is uncharted territory. With a Super El Niño already shaping the weather pattern, the impacts are harder to track than in mid-winter.”
    — Severe Weather Europe
    • bascule@mas.to

      The Polar Vortex is heading toward a record early disruption. The latest forecasts show stratospheric winds collapsing toward a full reversal in early November, splitting the Polar Vortex into two separate cores. If the reversal happens, it will be the earliest Sudden Stratospheric Warming on record, by at least three weeks. https://www…

      bascule@mas.toMastodon10d agoview on Mastodon ↗
    1 more of the top 2 · 2 posts in this stretch
    • calmeilles@mstdn.social

      Long article, lots of diagrams. The tl;dr is that it's likely to be a messy winter 2026–27, weather wise. https://www. severe-weather.eu/global-weath er/polar-vortex-split-record-early-stratospheric-warming-event-november-2026-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ # climate # weather # forecasting # ElNino # ClimateCrisis

      calmeilles@mstdn.socialMastodon11d agoview on Mastodon ↗
    all of them →
  4. 1

    Severe Weather Europe forecasts record early polar vortex split

    Weather forecasting website Severe Weather Europe publishes analysis showing the Arctic polar vortex is heading toward a record early disruption in early November, with stratospheric winds expected to reverse by around Nov. 12—three weeks earlier than any previous sudden stratospheric warming event on record.

    “The Polar Vortex is heading toward a record early disruption.”
    — Severe Weather Europe
    1. 2 outlets Polar vortex winds could plunge in November

      first by The Independent, 9d ago · also Philadelphia Inquirer

      1 more headline
    2. 1 outlet Chance of a record-early Sudden Stratospheric Warming in early November

      first by Netweather, 11d ago

    1 more claim →

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