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ClimateQuiet 10d · day 10

Climate Impact Lab raises Super El Niño death forecast to roughly 870,000

University of Chicago researchers say the current Super El Niño could cause nearly 900,000 excess heat deaths over 10 months, with Nigeria, India and China hit hardest.

newest coverage 9d agosummary written 9d ago4 pieces134 likes & upvotes6 comments NewswiresBlueskyGoogle NewsMastodon

What to know

  • Updated forecast puts total Super El Niño-linked excess heat deaths at roughly 857,400 over 10 months, up sharply from a September 2026 estimate after a hotter-than-expected August and September.
  • Nigeria is projected to suffer the highest toll (over 56,000 deaths in the next six months), followed by India (55,000) and Indonesia (29,000); China, Nigeria and India together account for more than a third of deaths.
  • A Super El Niño occurs only about every 10 to 15 years and is also driving droughts, wildfire haze and air-quality crises in Southeast Asia alongside the heat deaths.
  • The Climate Impact Lab says the tracker is meant to let governments act pre-emptively, though coverage so far is limited to the report itself with no policy response yet documented.

“Being able to anticipate the deadly effects of extreme heat is a major step forward. It means we can identify where people face the greatest risks and give decision-makers a chance to act before lives are lost. The Tracker provides this information for the Super El Niño we're living through today.”

Michael Greenstone, Co-founder, Climate Impact Lab · The Independent ↗ · Oct 28

Michael Greenstone Co-founder, Climate Impact LabClimate Impact Lab (University of Chicago) Research body behind the El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker

Climate Impact Lab raises Super El Niño death forecast to roughly 870,000
independent.co.uk

How it unfolded 1 development · click the chart to see its coverage articlesposts

Peak 2 pieces in 3h at Oct 29, 11 AM; 4 pieces over 11 days (2 articles · 2 posts) Oct 29, 2 AM — 1 piece · 1 article — Google News 1Oct 29, 5 AM — quietOct 29, 8 AM — quietOct 29, 11 AM — 2 pieces · 1 article · 1 post — Mastodon 1, Newswires 1Oct 29, 2 PM — 1 piece · 1 post — Bluesky 1Oct 29, 5 PM — quietOct 29, 8 PM — quietOct 29, 11 PM — quietOct 30, 2 AM — quietOct 30, 5 AM — quietOct 30, 8 AM — quietOct 30, 11 AM — quietOct 30, 2 PM — quietOct 30, 5 PM — quietOct 30, 8 PM — quietOct 30, 11 PM — quietOct 31, 2 AM — quietOct 31, 5 AM — quietOct 31, 8 AM — quietOct 31, 11 AM — quietOct 31, 2 PM — quietOct 31, 5 PM — quietOct 31, 8 PM — quietOct 31, 11 PM — quietNov 1, 1 AM — quietNov 1, 4 AM — quietNov 1, 7 AM — quietNov 1, 10 AM — quietNov 1, 1 PM — quietNov 1, 4 PM — quietNov 1, 7 PM — quietNov 1, 10 PM — quietNov 2, 1 AM — quietNov 2, 4 AM — quietNov 2, 7 AM — quietNov 2, 10 AM — quietNov 2, 1 PM — quietNov 2, 4 PM — quietNov 2, 7 PM — quietNov 2, 10 PM — quietNov 3, 1 AM — quietNov 3, 4 AM — quietNov 3, 7 AM — quietNov 3, 10 AM — quietNov 3, 1 PM — quietNov 3, 4 PM — quietNov 3, 7 PM — quietNov 3, 10 PM — quietNov 4, 1 AM — quietNov 4, 4 AM — quietNov 4, 7 AM — quietNov 4, 10 AM — quietNov 4, 1 PM — quietNov 4, 4 PM — quietNov 4, 7 PM — quietNov 4, 10 PM — quietNov 5, 1 AM — quietNov 5, 4 AM — quietNov 5, 7 AM — quietNov 5, 10 AM — quietNov 5, 1 PM — quietNov 5, 4 PM — quietNov 5, 7 PM — quietNov 5, 10 PM — quietNov 6, 1 AM — quietNov 6, 4 AM — quietNov 6, 7 AM — quietNov 6, 10 AM — quietNov 6, 1 PM — quietNov 6, 4 PM — quietNov 6, 7 PM — quietNov 6, 10 PM — quietYesterday, 1 AM — quietYesterday, 4 AM — quietYesterday, 7 AM — quietYesterday, 10 AM — quietYesterday, 1 PM — quietYesterday, 4 PM — quietYesterday, 7 PM — quietYesterday, 10 PM — quietToday, 1 AM — quietToday, 4 AM — quietToday, 7 AM — quietToday, 10 AM — quiet 1
Oct 30Oct 31Nov 1Nov 2Nov 3Nov 4Nov 5Nov 6yesterdaynow · 1:14 PM ET
  1. 1

    Scientists forecast 870,000 Super El Niño deaths worldwide

    The Climate Impact Lab's updated El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker projects roughly 372,900 additional deaths over the next six months on top of the 484,500 already recorded, with Nigeria (56,000), India (55,000) and Indonesia (29,000) among the hardest-hit countries.

    “Our research puts new forecasting capabilities to work to answer one of the most urgent questions we face: where is extreme heat likely to cost lives?”
    — Michael Greenstone
    1. 2 outlets Super El Niño could kill 870,000 people around the world, warn climate scientists

      first by Independent UK, 10d ago · also The Independent

  2. background

    Heat tied to Super El Niño kills 484,500 people, June–September — Researchers estimate the current Super El Niño has already caused 484,500 excess heat-related deaths worldwide between June and September 2026.

  3. background

    Climate Impact Lab issues earlier, lower death toll estimate — A September 2026 report from the Climate Impact Lab forecast a lower total of El Niño-linked heat deaths before an unexpectedly hot late summer forced a revision.